How the Kirill Marchenko Contract Impacts Devils Dawson Mercer

Following the first few days of free agency, things have slowed down league-wide in terms of transactions. On Sunday, the Columbus Blue Jackets took care of an important piece of internal business, inking Kirill Marchenko — one of their important restricted free agents — to a new contract. Suddenly, there’s a contract comparable for the New Jersey Devils to negotiate with Dawson Mercer.

After the free agent frenzy, the Devils took care of some internal housekeeping, inking Santeri Hatakka, Adam Beckman, and Cam Squires to respective contracts.

But the one imperative piece of business general manager Tom Fitzgerald still has to take care of is Mercer who is certainly due for a raise coming off his entry-level contract.

Mercer — Marchenko Player Comparison

Mercer and Marchenko aren’t direct comparable player types.

The Blue Jackets forward is a skilled offensive winger who has figured out how to fill the net in multiple different ways. Through and through, Marchenko is a shot producer and goal scorer who developed his game against men in the KHL before making the leap to North America two seasons ago to begin his NHL career.

However, the Russian forward is still rounding out his game as a player who isn’t necessarily a stalwart on the defensive side of the puck. Despite playing on an inept Blue Jackets team for the last two seasons, Marchenko has contributed to the defensive woes in Columbus rather than become part of the solution.

Mercer on the other hand is a two-way forward who contributes in all three zones. His deployment over the last few years gone up and down the lineup. The Devils have relied on Mercer in a number of situations, putting him on the ice at 5-on-5 in the top six to contribute on offense or even as a shut down forward against the oppositions top players. He’s also been asked to play in bottom-six checking roles which cater to him focusing more on the defensive side of the game.

Yet, Marchenko is a sophomore who will graduate to a junior in October when the puck drops to begin the 2024-25 regular season. In 78 games last season, Marchenko potted 23 goals and 42 points in 78 games. That was an increase from his rookie season in which he netted 21 goals and 25 points in 59 games with Columbus.

If Marchenko makes another near 20 point jump again in 2024-25, the Blue Jackets forward is looking at roughly a 60-point season.

In contrast, Mercer will be a fourth-year NHLer in October and has seen his production move up and down. Mercer broke out in the 2022-23 season by scoring 27 goals and 56 points in 82 games — a 10 goal and 14 point increase from his rookie season. However, Mercer took a step backward in 2023-24, scoring seven fewer goals and totaled just 33 points.

Over the span of their respective careers, Mercer is averaging 43.6 points per season which is nearly a 10-point difference to Marchenko’s 33.5.

Contract Comparison

Marchenko’s new deal with the Blue Jackets is a three-year contract worth $11.5 million, an average annual value (AAV) of $3.85 million.

According to AFP Analytics, that’s quite close to Marchenko’s projected short-term, two-year deal with a projected $3,493,600 AAV.

Sticking with the same source, AFP Analytics projects Mercer to earn a $3,793,680 AAV on a short-term, two-year contract as well, a $300,000 increase to Marchenko’s projection.

Therefore, if the Devils decide to bridge Mercer — who averages more points season over season than Marchenko — it’s not unreasonable to see Mercer’s deal sit in the low, $4 million range.

It would seem that’s the direction the Devils are going in given the state of their salary cap situation. Currently, the Devils have $4,976,103 in cap space remaining after reconstructing the roster this offseason. Therefore, it seems reasonable to believe Mercer will earn a bit more than what Marchenko just signed for, but enough to fit under the Devils’ salary cap without needing to shed a sacrificial contract.

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