New Jersey Devils
How the Brock Faber Contract Impacts Devils Luke Hughes
Brock Faber’s new eight-year deal with the Minnesota Wild will certainly factor in to Luke Hughes’ contract negotiations with the New Jersey Devils.
On Monday, the Minnesota Wild and rookie defenseman, Brock Faber, agreed to an eight-year contract worth $68 million, which carries an average annual value (AAV) of $8.5 million. The Maple Grove, Minnesota native had a stellar rookie campaign that showed Wild general manager Bill Guerin enough to lock the soon 22-year-old down through his age-30 season. Certainly, Faber’s new contract with the Wild will have an impact on the New Jersey Devils and defenseman Luke Hughes who — despite the online disagreement — is certainly a comparable player to the Wild defenseman.
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For starters, much like Faber, Hughes still has one year remaining on his entry-level contract. Although Hughes is eligible to sign the dotted line for a new contract as of 30 days ago, he and general manager Tom Fitzgerald still have time to put pen to paper. Therefore, both Faber and Hughes will be working the 2024-25 season on the final year of their entry-level contracts.
The Devils do have more immediate concerns to address as well. They just inked Nico Daws to a two-year contract, and have Dawson Mercer and Nolan Foote to still sort out. However, there is a chance that as Fitzgerald is sifting through his salary cap situation, he formulates a plan to ink Hughes — whether that happens sooner or later.
Perhaps it would be smart to extend Hughes sooner, in case he plays himself the right to negotiate a more expensive contract. However, looking ahead to next summer, the Devils currently project to have $15,306,667 in cap space with Hughes being the lone major roster piece who will need a new deal, so Fitzgerald can afford to wait if that is his preference. Yet, it doesn’t sound like he’s in any rush.
“My [mind] wasn’t on extension on July 1st,” Fitzgerald explained to New Jersey Hockey Now following the first few days of free agency. “I was just trying to improve the team. Luke’s a long-time Devil. So we will get to that and just kind of see what both groups are at financially. Our projections for where the [salary] caps going and what we have will all depend on that. But no, I think Luke knows that we feel he’s a lifer here, a long-time Devil.”
Regardless of Fitzgerald’s mindset, Faber’s new deal with Minnesota just became a direct comparable contract that Hughes and his camp can bring to the table during negotiations as a starting point.
Hughes — Faber Player Comparison
There’s certainly evidence to support that Hughes and Faber are comparable players.
For starters, both of the young defenseman were finalists for the Calder Trophy presented “to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition.” Each player was ultimately up-ended by Chicago Blackhawks rookie sensation Connor Bedard, but Faber finished second and Hughes third. Yet, both defenseman were named to the 2023-24 All-Rookie Team which also featured Bedard, Logan Cooley, Marco Rossi, and Pyotr Kotchetkov.
Taking a look at each of their seasons, both players finished their rookie campaigns totaling 47 points. Faber collected eight goals and 39 assists, while Hughes collected nine goals (which led all rookie defenseman) and 38 assists — suggesting there’s a relatively thin offensive margin, all while Faber had nearly two minutes more of average time on ice.
However, zooming the lens in a little further reveals that Hughes made a greater impact on the man advantage. Again, leading all rookie defenseman in power play points (25) with four goals and 21 assists on the man advantage as opposed to Faber’s three goals and 16 points.
On the defensive side of the puck, Hughes led all rookie defenseman in takeaways (42) whereas Faber collected significantly fewer by registering just 15. Yet, Faber proved to be more responsible by committing fewer giveaways (35) compared to Hughes (69).
Looking at Evolving Hockey’s model, it’s evident that Faber is a more defensively responsible player, whereas Hughes provides more in transition and on the offensive side of the puck.
Certainly, a factor here is that Faber is a year older than Hughes and both players still have time before they even reach the prime years of their careers. However, in his sophomore campaign, if Hughes can be more responsible with the puck and increase his defensive impact — which isn’t a farfetched concept with Brett Pesce his new projected partner as opposed to John Marino and Brenden Smith — his analytics should soar above where they were last season.
Contract Comparison
Before Faber inked his new contract on Monday, AFP Analytics projected Faber to sign a seven-year contract with an AAV of $8,474,400. His eight-year, $8.5 million cap hit doesn’t get much closer to what the AFP model predicted.
If the Devils opt to go for the same long-term approach, AFP Analytics projects Hughes to sign a seven-year deal with an AAV $8,133,840. Tack on the extra year like the Wild and Faber did, you can see a slight increase on the AAV just the same.
The Devils could opt to bridge Hughes, which projects him to receive a three-year contract with a $4,966,720 AAV. In the long-run, it very well could save the Devils more money to ink Hughes long-term, much like they did with his brother, Jack Hughes.
Yet, if the Devils opt to practice patience, Hughes’ next contract is certainly contingent on how he performs next season.
Fitzgerald has the means to get a long-term deal with Luke Hughes done today if he pleases. And yes, that number is going to come in relatively close to Faber’s if that comes to fruition, although it’s not unimaginable to see the number come in slightly less given Faber’s greater defensive impacts.
Would it really surprise anyone if the Devils hand Luke the same 8x$8 million deal as Jack?
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