New Jersey Devils
What Would an Offer Sheet Look Like for Devils Dawson Mercer?
In lieu of a pair of offer sheets that were doled out on Tuesday, what would one look like if handed to New Jersey Devils Dawson Mercer?
In the dead of summer, there hasn’t been much, if any movement by way of transactions around the NHL. Here and there, an occasional depth signing will trickle in, much like the New Jersey Devils did on Monday. But, nothing overly exciting has happened in weeks. That was until Tuesday morning when a pair of offer sheets were doled out.
The St. Louis Blues made the first attempt at an impact move, handing offer sheets to Edmonton Oilers restricted free agents (RFA), forward Dylan Holloway and defenseman Philip Broberg. A trade between the Blues and Pittsburgh Penguins for draft picks just minutes before the announcement that St. Louis general manager Doug Armstrong was sending the offer sheets suddenly made a lot more sense.
Armstrong’s offer sheets are the first ones extended since August 2021, when the Carolina Hurricanes sent an offer sheet to Jesperi Kotkaniemi which the Montreal Canadiens did not match.
After the Devils took care of another piece of business on Monday by extending Nolan Foote to a one-year contract, GM Tom Fitzgerald has but one bit of business left.
Dawson Mercer, who remains an RFA without arbitration rights, is due for a new contract.
So what could an offer sheet to the Devils forward look like?
Well, for starters only about half of the NHL has the cap space in order to be able to extend an offer sheet to Mercer that would give Fitzgerald pause in matching. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean each of those teams has the compensation to make it work.
Here’s how the offer sheet compensation works this summer:
Here is the 2024 compensation for an offer sheet signed by any of this year's RFA's:
$1,511,701 AAV or less – No compensation
$1,5111,701 to $2,290,457 – 3rd round pick
$2,290,457 to $4,580,917 – 2nd round pick
$4,580,917 to $6,871,374 – 1st and 3rd round picks
$6,871,374 to…— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) June 4, 2024
Therefore, the Blues’ offer to Holloway — two years with a $2,290,457 AAV — requires a third round pick in compensation. For Broberg — two years with a $4,580,917 AAV — requires a second round pick in compensation.
The Oilers have seven days to decide if they will match the offers.
Projections for Devils RFA Dawson Mercer offer both short and long-term contracts that he can sign in New Jersey.
AFP Analytics projects Mercer to earn a $3,793,680 AAV on a short-term, two-year contract. In that case, should the Devils choose not to match the offer — which seems highly unlikely — New Jersey would recoup a second round pick in compensation.
On a longer term contract, Mercer is projected to earn a $6,521,182.60 over six seasons. If the Devils didn’t match the offer sheet, they would receive a first and third round pick in compensation.
Should a team opt to do the latter of the two hypothetical offer sheets with Mercer, it would put the Devils in a tough situation. They currently project to have $4,976,103 in cap space. In other words, if the Devils wanted to match the long-term offer sheet, they’d have to shed salary which might cost them assets to offset contracts anyway.
It’s a cut-throat business, and no one will be throwing the Devils life preserver in this situation.
In fact, it wouldn’t even be a surprise to see a team take it one step further and offer Mercer an AAV in the $7 million range which would net the Devils a first, second, and third round pick.
Regardless, a bridge deal with the Devils and Mercer seems likely to keep his cap hit within the Devils’ abilities in terms of their salary cap. However, there’s no denying that if another GM like Armstrong musters up the courage to shake things up similarly to the Blues, said GM could put the Devils in a spot to have to make a tough decision.
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