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Luke Hughes’ Potential Contract Extension with the Devils Revealed

AFP Analytics has projected what two contract extensions would look like for New Jersey Devils defenseman, Luke Hughes.

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New Jersey Devils
Jan 04, 2025; San Jose, CA, USA; during New Jersey Devils at San Jose Sharks at SAP Center. Photo: Hockey Shots/Dean Tait

The New Jersey Devils and General Manager Tom Fitzgerald have a massive contract negotiation on the horizon.



Over the past few years, Fitzgerald has done a great job locking up his star players to long-term, team-friendly contracts. He was the assistant general manager when then-GM Ray Shero signed future captain Nico Hischier to a seven-year, $50.75 million contract. When he took the reins, he signed Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Timo Meier to eight-year contracts, all under market value.

With all his key forwards signed for the foreseeable future, his focus will now need to shift to one of the main pillars of his defensive core.

It was reported over a month ago that Fitzgerald was set to discuss contract extensions with pending unrestricted free agent Johnathan Kovacevic, but more importantly, pending restricted free agent Luke Hughes after the new year.

RELATED: Devils GM Reveals Plan to Begin Contract Talks with Key Pending Free Agents

While there have yet to be any updates on Luke’s contract negotiations, we have gotten our first glimpse into what a potential extension could look like for the promising 21-year-old.

Sports analytics consulting firm AFP Analytics recently released their highly anticipated NHL contract projections for all pending unrestricted and restricted free agents for 2024-25.

In the case of Luke Hughes, AFP broke down an extension into two options: short-term and long-term. With a projected salary cap of $92 million, they believe a short-term deal for Luke would be a three-year, $15.577 million contract, a $5.192 million average annual value.

On a long-term deal, AFP projects a Luke Hughes extension to be a seven-year, $59.524 million contract, a $8.503 average annual value.

Unlike NHL owners and general managers, AFP’s numbers are very specific, so for argument’s sake, a short-term deal would be around three years, $15.5 million with an AAV of $5.166, and a long-term deal would be seven years, $59.5 million, with an AAV of $8.5 million.

As it stands, the Devils are projected to have a little over $16 million in cap space for the 2025-26 season if the salary cap rises to $92 million. There have been rumors that it could rise higher than $92 million, but that has yet to be confirmed.

So, with about $16 million in cap space to play with, Fitzgerald will need to make some difficult choices throughout his lineup. As mentioned, Kovacevic is a pending UFA, as is backup goalie Jake Allen, along with a trio of bottom-six forwards in Tomas Tatar, Curtis Lazar, and Nathan Bastian.

Throw in the recent conversations surrounding former second-overall pick Simon Nemec, and it’s easy to see how difficult it will be for Fitzgerald to maneuver this summer.

READ: Devils Reaffirm Simon Nemec Future, For Now

If the Devils opt to sign Luke to the three-year, $5.166 million per year contract, it makes rounding out the roster much easier for Fitzgerald this offseason. Re-signing Kovacevic is now back on the table, as is making more aggressive moves to either significantly improve the bottom of the lineup, or add a bonafide top-six scoring winger.

The caveat to a three-year deal is that while there will be short-term gain, there may be long-term pain. If Luke’s game (and the NHL salary cap) continues its upward trajectory, an extension three years from now may cost the Devils $10+ million per season. Between the natural improvement of his game over time, the rising salary cap, and walking him closer to unrestricted free agency, Luke would likely cash in on a well-earned, massive extension that could handcuff the Devils financially during their peak Stanley Cup contention years.

What complicates matters more by signing him to a short-term contract is two things: the lack of a succession plan in goal and the pending Hischier extension. The Devils may need to go to the open market in the coming years to fill the void in net. Jacob Markstrom is 34-years-old and has just one year left on his contract.

In addition, three years from now Hischier’s contract will be up, and he will be in line for a significant raise from his $7.25 million AAV. If Luke signs a three-year extension, Fitzgerald may have dug his own grave by putting himself in the position to hand out two $10+ million contract extensions in the same offseason.

However, Fitzgerald could (and should) bite the proverbial bullet this offseason and lock Luke up to a long-term contract. While AFP projects a seven-year deal, the Devils would most likely want to add the eighth year that only they can.

We’ve also seen Fitzgerald use the ‘take a little less money so it can be spread amongst the team’ argument to lock up his star players before, and there would be no reason to not use it again on Luke. If he can get Luke to sign an identical eight-year, $8 million per season contract like his brother Jack did when he was 20 years old, that would go a long way in helping the team add along the fringes.

However, since we’re going off of AFP’s projections, $8.5 million per season is quite a good deal all things considered. Even if it doesn’t happen this offseason, the salary cap is expected to make significant jumps over the next few seasons, so locking Luke in long-term now could pay massive dividends down the line.

The downside to Luke eating up over half of the projected cap space is it leaves little room to make other moves. A Kovacevic extension becomes unlikely, and Fitzgerald would need to decide whether to use the remaining cap to add one or two impact bottom-six forwards or go all in on a top-six scorer, in addition to adding a backup goalie.

READ MORE: Considering a Devils Trade Swapping Star Prospects for Long-Term Balance

While it may hurt in the short term, signing Luke to the long-term extension should be the priority. There are already two built-in Kovacevic replacements in Nemec and Seamus Casey, as well as cheap wingers who could fill openings throughout the lineup. Incoming prospects Arseni Gritsyuk and Lenni Hameenaho, as well as AHL forwards like Brian Halonen, Adam Beckman, Mike Hardman, and former Devils first-round pick Chase Stillman are cheap options that could fit all throughout the lineup next season.

Whether it be three years or seven years, Luke Hughes’ contract extension will be another monumental moment for Fitzgerald as he assembles a team that’s on the brink of Stanley Cup contention.

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