New Jersey Devils
Natale: Timo Meier’s Breakout for the Devils is Imminent
The New Jersey Devils need more for Timo Meier. Luckily, the numbers and recent history suggest that Meier’s second-half breakout is imminent.
The Timo Meier breakout is coming, and the New Jersey Devils sure could use it.
All signs have been pointing this way, and history has shown, at least since joining the Devils, that Timo Meier is a second-half player. Even through the first half of this season, the numbers have shown Meier is experiencing a ton of puck “un-luck”.
With Meier stuck primarily on the Devils’ second power play unit for most of the season, his five-on-five numbers paint a better picture of how unlucky he has been this season.
Meier has been one of the most trigger-happy players in the NHL this season. He leads all forwards with 263 shots, but he is just 9th in shots on goal with 116 and first in shots that miss the net with 76. Meier also ranks amongst the top four in shot attempts per 60 and shot attempts per game but has a shooting percentage of just 7.8%, which is good for eighth place on the Devils.
Furthermore, he’s second in the league in expected goals at 14.2 but has the fifth-lowest number of Goals Above Expected with -5.2.
So clearly, as most of the stats have shown, it’s not for a lack of trying on Meier’s part. The puck just doesn’t want to go in for him right now. Fortunately, we’ve seen this before, and as recently as last season.
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Through 51 games played so far, Meier has 15 goals and 20 assists. Those are hardly impressive numbers for someone who’s leaned on to be a top offensive contributor.
However, last season has started eerily similar. From the start of the 2023-24 season up until the 2024 All-Star Game break, Meier had just 18 points. Injuries skewed the numbers a little, but the consensus at the time was that Meier needed to produce more offensively.
Post All-Star Game Timo Meier was a completely different player. He posted 34 points to finish the season, including 19 goals. Despite the slow start and injuries, he ended up leading the team with 28 goals and finished fourth on the team in points with 52.
Perhaps a change in role will help Meier reach his full potential. He was originally thought to be a premier goalscorer who would be stapled to Jack Hughes’s hip for the next eight-plus years. However, when that yielded average results, a move to his countryman Nico Hischier’s wing made sense. Results have been better next to the Selke-caliber center, but they often draw the toughest matchups on a nightly basis.
Maybe where Meier is best suited is a place where former head coach Lindy Ruff once put him, and most recently current head coach Sheldon Keefe did: the third line. Meier is at his best when he has the puck on his stick and can drive play. It’s what made him one of the premier wingers in the league during his time with San Jose.
READ MORE: How the Jacob Markstrom Injury Affects Devils Draft
In the small sample size that Meier has played on the third line, he’s been quite effective. During the 2022-23 playoff run, Meier was one of, if not, the most dangerous players on the ice, and that was while he was playing primarily on the third line.
More recently, we got a glimpse of his effectiveness in that role in the Devils’ recent game against the Boston Bruins. With Justin Dowling as his center and Dawson Mercer on his opposite wing, Meier dominated puck possession, and it led to two, five-on-five assists.
Long term, the Devils likely don’t envision Meier as a third liner, but in the interim, it may be the best spot for him to get easier matchups and see more of the puck. Add in the possibility of the team adding an upgrade at 3C via trade in the coming weeks, and maybe the case can be made that Meier should stay down there for the foreseeable future.
Where Meier can also add to his point totals is on the power play. Meier has been straddled to the second power play unit for most of this season and has seen just 81 minutes on the man advantage. For reference, the Devil with the next most power play minutes is Stefan Noesen with 126.
Even with Hischier out of the lineup, Keefe opted for Ondrej Palat to fill in at the bumper position. It was a head-scratching move, and the results were not great in their most recent game against the Philadelphia Flyers. Palat missed several chances in the high slot, a position better well-suited for a player with Meier’s shooting and goal-scoring prowess.
With the Devils’ forward core limited in high-end talent, loading up the first power play unit with the inclusion of Meier may be the way moving forward until the team gets healthy or adds someone via trade.
If the Devils want to have success over the last third of the season and go on a deep playoff run, Meier will be counted upon to contribute much more offensively. The numbers and history both suggest that positive regression is on the way for the Devils $8.8 million a year man.
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